Maple Leafs RFA breakdown: What's next for Timothy Liljegren, Nick Robertson and others? (2024)

With the NHL Draft 16 days away, followed by the opening of NHL free agency, the puzzle pieces that make up the Toronto Maple Leafs 2024-25 roster build are soon set to fall into place.

We know there will be new salary cap space, with high-priced free agents like TJ Brodie and Ilya Samsonov sure to depart.

We know there will be much-needed roster turnover, with serious upgrades needed on the blue line, down the middle, and in goal.

Given his reputation and experience, we can safely assume Leafs GM Brad Treliving will try to keep his hands in as many honey pots as possible to try and improve his team. Many of the top unrestricted free agents, such as Chris Tanev, have already been linked to the Leafs, and with good reason.

Heck, given how much space at the top of the salary cap will be tied up by the likes of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and, very likely, John Tavares and Mitch Marner, it’s also safe to assume there will be young Leafs such as Easton Cowan graduating into full-time roles next season.

What we don’t know is how the team’s restricted free agents fit into the puzzle Treliving and Co. are building.

“We’ve got several unrestricted and restricted free agents, so you’re meeting with agents on them and seeing if there’s a path to a deal,” Treliving toldThe Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun. “In some cases, the path is smoother than others.”

The next few weeks could reveal plenty about what the futures of the Leafs’ four RFAs – Timothy Liljegren, Nick Robertson, Connor Dewar and Noah Gregor – look like. All four were relied upon heavily at points last season, but none of them feel like surefire pieces the Leafs see as long-term fits.

Let’s break down each of their situations, their place in the lineup and, given their experience, production and playing styles, what their contract comparables could look like.

Timothy Liljegren, 25, RHD

Comparables: Vince Dunn ($1.875 million, 2020-21), Erik Brannstrom ($2 million, 2023-24), Martin Fehervary (Three years, $2.675 million AAV, 2023 to 2026), Erik Cernak (Three years, $2.95 million AAV, 2020 to 2023), Ryan Lindgren (Three years, $3 million AAV, 2021 to 2024)

What a fascinating case. Liljegren is a right shot, first-round draft pick who has flirted with a top-four role for the past two seasons. He’s still just 25 but has seven seasons of professional experience in North America. Liljegren is a smooth skater who can man the neutral zone and the offensive zone well and with the opportunity, could likely quarterback the second power-play unit.

Where he’s struggled at times is in his own zone. While Liljegren has improved his defensive game, the speed with which he plays with and without the puck under pressure leads to the biggest questions about his future in Toronto.

It could take some time this offseason for Liljegren’s future to play out.

It sounds like there hasn’t been much dialogue between the Leafs and Liljegren’s camp over his next contract. The Leafs are likely waiting to see how free agency unfolds. Once they know what kind of pieces they can add, they’ll be able to decide where Liljegren fits in their lineup.

It’s worth wondering what a fresh set of eyes behind the bench would do for Liljegren. Sheldon Keefe was essentially the only coach Liljegren ever had, stretching both through the AHL and NHL. It’s possible Keefe formed an impression of Liljegren in the AHL and that perception of the player, rightly or wrongly, carried over into his NHL time.

Liljegren requires continued support and confidence from the coaching staff to propel him. When he gets consistent playing time, Liljegren is at his best. When he’s in and out of the lineup, he’s struggled.

But how many bonafide NHL defencemen do the Leafs have on their roster right now who offer the skillset Liljegren possesses? Just one, in Morgan Rielly?

And so come early-ish July, there will be multiple options: One path I’d bet the Leafs might walk down is taking Liljegren to salary arbitration. They might look at the 196 games he’s played and his 65 points during that stretch and figure they have a decent case in arbitration. A one-year deal would only punt Liljegren’s future down the road.

The Leafs could also offer Liljegren a long-term deal if they don’t add another puck mover. That number could likely start at $3 million AAV, depending on the term. If the Leafs can buy a year or two of Liljegren’s UFA years, that’s a win for them.

Of course, once the Leafs get a clearer picture of how their blue line might look, new head coach Craig Berube might determine he doesn’t see much of a role for Liljegren on his team.

And from Liljegren’s perspective, that matters: If you’ve spent as much time with the organization as you have, wouldn’t you want to know what kind of role the Leafs see him in long-term?

If the fit and a bonafide role for Liljegren isn’t there under Berube, Liljegren has value as a cost-controlled trade chip. There’s always a need for young, right-shot defencemen throughout the NHL. Liljegren’s good friend and former Leafs teammate Rasmus Sandin got shipped to the Washington Capitals in 2023, found a clear role on his new team and signed a five-year, $23-million extension. That’s the kind of deal Liljegren would undoubtedly be happy with.

It’s for that reason the Leafs might have to tread carefully when dangling him as a trade chip. They don’t have another right-shot defenceman like him in the organization. Topi Niemela is full of promise but has yet to prove he can be an NHLer.

Liljegren takes a lot of criticism in Toronto. But balance in roster building is still vital and development isn’t linear. With a clear role and leeway to improve, he could end up becoming the top four defenceman the Leafs seem to be searching for every season. Liljegren has shown the capacity to improve and his best games are likely ahead of him. How many of those games occur in a blue and white sweater remains to be seen.

Nick Robertson, 22, LW

Comparables: Gabe Valardi ($825,000, 2022-23), Kailer Yamamoto ($1.175 million, 2021-22), Anthony Duclair ($1.2 million, 2017-18), Andreas Athanasiou ($1.3785 million, 2017-18)

Let’s start with the outright positives: Robertson stayed healthy this season, marking his first professional season in which he did just that.

When he played, he produced. His 14 goals in 56 games work out to a 20-goal pace over 82 games. That would have put him sixth in Leafs goal-scoring on the season. His 1.33 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was second among all Leafs.

We know Robertson has an elite shot, but this was the season we finally saw what he could do with that shot night after night.

Finally, perhaps most notable from Robertson was the maturity and composure he showed every day, even when he wasn’t in the lineup. Gone is the player who proclaimed in 2021: “I can’t tell you what a dialled-back Nick Robertson looks like.” In his place is a person more at peace with the world around him and understanding that the road to becoming an NHL regular can be bumpy.

Add it up and you have a player who has done what has been asked of him by the organization. Robertson will be 23 when next season gets underway. He has plenty more runway to develop, especially considering he has played just 87 regular-season games and would benefit from continued playing time.

Were there defensive lapses at times in Robertson’s game this season? Undoubtedly. Did the Leafs do enough to put him in positions to succeed alongside veterans? I’m less certain of that.

And so one pivotal question for Robertson’s RFA case is whether the new coaching staff can develop a level of trust in him that Keefe and Co. never had. If Berube is going to be manning the ship in Toronto for at least the next few seasons, it’s probably worth determining whether Robertson can adhere to Berube’s defensively-focused assignments night after night before jumping into a mid or long-term deal. A much larger sample size is needed to determine what kind of player Robertson projects to become.

Now, there are questions around each of the offence-first players listed as comparables, but each brings the potential to provide secondary scoring – at levels similar to that of Robertson – consistently.

But the goals alone are valuable to the Leafs. So at something in the range of $1.2 million on a one-year deal, Robertson could still provide terrific value for the Leafs. That, in turn, could help his bargaining power down the road when looking for a longer deal with a heftier salary.

The potential for a bigger payoff soon after his first contract after his ELC is there for Robertson. Andreas Athanasiou earned a $3 million AAV on his third NHL contract.

That’s why a one-year deal out of his entry-level contract makes the most sense for now. The Leafs must keep Robertson at the front of their team-building plans heading into next season. He’s a middle-six scorer who, with patience, could develop into a full-time second-line player.

Robertson could end up increasing his value by staying healthy and scoring even more next season. And, if you’re the Leafs, you would probably be happy if that’s the case, too.

Connor Dewar, 24, C

Comparables: Cedric Paquette ($1 million, 2018-19), Chandler Stephenson ($1.05-million, 2019-20), Joe Veleno ($825,000, 2023-24), Chris Tierney ($775,000, 2023-24)

There doesn’t feel like a lot of questions about whether Dewar has a home in a Berube-led Leafs team. He played with attention to detail, showed a noticeable work ethic and his defensive game is baked into his style of play.

Still, a one-year deal is the most likely outcome here, given the fact that Dewar will undoubtedly take a place on the Leafs fourth line. Investing with mid-term deals for players of his ilk – servicable as Dewar might be – should be done with extreme caution. Going in on Ryan Reaves and David Kampf with respective three and four-year deals, for example, and banking on players with limited upside has probably left the Leafs more hamstrung than they’d like to be this offseason.

Two questions worth asking about Dewar’s immediate future in Toronto go hand-in-hand: Is there more where Dewar’s 10 goals in 57 games with the Minnesota Wild last season came from? As it stands, the Leafs need more offence from their bottom six and that didn’t come from Dewar. His 17.5 percent shooting percentage with the Wild last season was abnormally high from his previous two seasons.

And then, can Dewar learn to become more comfortable in the bright lights with the Leafs? This is a person who doesn’t love hanging out in the public eye and never really looked at ease during his time in Toronto. If he can begin to find his footing in Toronto, Dewar’s comfort level on the ice should improve too.

The case of Tyler Bertuzzi is a similar one: After signing in Toronto, it was clear Bertuzzi wasn’t a fan of the attention that came with it. Bertuzzi and his family took time to adjust to life in Toronto, and that should be expected.

Perhaps a little patience with Dewar and expectations surrounding him – should the Leafs qualify him, of course – could go a long way in his first full season in Toronto.

Dewar has arbitration rights but after one goal in 17 games as a Leaf, is that a route his camp would want to go down?

After only getting moved to Toronto at the trade deadline, the likeliest outcome here is a low-ish AAV and a one-year deal to determine if the fit makes sense for Dewar and the Leafs long-term.

Noah Gregor, 25, F

With the emergence of Cowan next season combined with Gregor’s declining production and role in the second half of the season (one goal in his last 35 games), it feels unlikely the Leafs extend a qualifying offer. He was known to be a good teammate in Toronto and his speed and attitude alone should help him catch on with another NHL team easily enough next season.

(Top photo of Timothy Liljegren: Sergei Belski / USA Today)